Which Rolex watch is the best investment?
Who hasn't heard the saying: "If you had bought Bitcoin for 1,000 euros a few years ago, you would be a multimillionaire by now" or "If you had bought Apple or Amazon shares in the early 2000s, you would be well off and wouldn't need to work anymore.
In the watch world, too, you hear similar phrases in the subjunctive over and over again. Because it is certain that due to the luxury watch hype, the value of certain models has multiplied in recent years. It is the same with many Rolex watches.
Certainly many have thought that they should have bought a Rolex years ago to profit from the hype around Rolex. In retrospect, one is always smarter.
But still, it is interesting to see how certain models of Rolex have developed in terms of value in recent years. Which model from the Oyster series has performed best? And what are important indications of the performance of a Rolex watch?
The Rolex that is best suited for investment is the Daytona in stainless steel. This model is extremely popular and has very long waiting times, which explains the high price on the secondary market. It is a good idea to go for the reference 116520, as it is the last Daytona without a ceramic bezel. The Submariner and the GMT-Master II models with colorful bezel are also very popular and promising in terms of performance.
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The value of a Rolex is measured by many factors
Rolex watches have gone through the roof in the past. Everyone wanted them. However, the supply was manageable. As a result, the coveted models of the brand with the golden crown are only available after waiting on a Rolex waiting list and are traded at horrendous prices on the secondary market.
Supply - demand and trends
The most important factor that we have already mentioned is how many watches are offered. Since Rolex production is limited, certain Rolex models are in high demand. This leads to the fact that the watches become so expensive. So you should always pay attention to the popularity of a particular Rolex model.
That alone is usually a leading indicator of how a watch will fare in terms of price.
In this regard, it is also beneficial to pay attention to fashion trends. There are always phases when colorful dials or a certain color, as found in the new 2023 Rolex models, are extremely in demand. If you can see this coming, you can possibly expect massive profits.
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Watches policy of Rolex
Another almost equally important factor is the Rolex watch policy. You should pay close attention to which models or versions of Rolex are discontinued and which are expanded. Because discontinued models become rare in the following years and often rise sharply in price.
Materials
The wristwatches of the noble manufactory from Geneva are available in different materials. There are stainless steel, white and yellow gold, as well as Everose, a rose gold alloy created by Rolex itself, platinum and even titanium.
Each material has its advantages and disadvantages. You can find which material is the right one for you under "What Material Should My Rolex Watch Be Made Of?".
Based on experience, it can be said that the stainless steel sports models have performed best in the past, as these have the greatest appeal to the masses.
But that doesn't mean that the gold versions are worse. In particular, certain Day-Date configurations and the Daytona in gold were occasionally traded for immense sums. However, they have also fallen in value by a good deal.
It's a bit like playing with fire. Yellow and rose gold are increasingly conspicuous alloys that are not for everyone.
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Wristband
But a distinction must also be made when it comes to bracelets.
You can never go wrong with the classic Oyster bracelet. It is a trademark of Rolex.
With certain models, other bracelets are more suitable if you hope for the greatest possible increase in value. For example, you should always choose a Day-Date with a President bracelet. Datejust models on the Jubilee bracelet also tend to be more popular than those on the Oyster bracelet.
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Gemstone setting
When it comes to gemstones, you have to differentiate. Watches that have been set aftermarket by a third party are not valuable investments. You don't even need to consider them as an investment. Why this is so, we explain in our article about custom Rolex watches.
There are isolated diamond-set models that are extremely rare and have had and possibly will have tremendous appreciation, such as the GMT-Master II Ice or the Rainbow Daytona. However, these watches hover in outrageous price spheres, so buying them may be uninteresting for most.
Small gemstone details like a set bezel or diamonds as indexes, on the other hand, can be enormously popular and also make quite a difference in terms of value appreciation. For example, the baguette indices on the Rolex Day-Date are enormously popular.
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Condition
Condition is also a very important factor in the performance of a Rolex.
Basically, the newer the better. Because every quirk, every scratch, every blemish reduces the value of a watch.
Unless it is a very specific vintage reference. In the case of these, loose hands and bracelets, as well as faded dials, can quickly make a difference of thousands of euros.
Furthermore, it is extremely important for the value of a watch that original box and papers are present. These are not only a guarantee for the authenticity of the watch, but also for the value retention.
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Model
But probably the most important factor in whether a Rolex will increase in value is the model it is. Basically, all Rolex Oyster models are very popular, but some are more popular than others. It is no secret that the Daytona has performed the best in recent years. But also the Rolex sports models made of stainless steel like the Submariner or the GMT-Master II were at the top.
Rolex Daytona - The Rolex watch with the best development
The Daytonais without a doubt one of the most popular models ever, if not the most popular. And this is also reflected in its performance. Because within five years, the price of the Daytona has more than doubled.
The Daytona is a legendary luxury watch. It enjoys an absolute cult status thanks to its use in racing.
Why is the Daytona so expensive?
The Daytona is certainly so popular because it has a chronograph that allows the wearer to tell time and average speeds. The technology behind it is ingenious. The Rolex Chronograph is one of the best chronographs around, if not the best.
But that alone is not the reason why the Daytona is so popular and thus so expensive on the secondary market. The watch is a cult. Not only does it embody racing and Formula 1 in one watch, the Daytona is also one of the most expensive Rolex watches ever sold at auction. The Paul Newman Daytona, for example, changed hands for over 17 million US dollars.
It is a symbol of prestige and status precisely because of its desirability and notoriety, which makes it more and more prominent. So nowadays you wait for a new Daytona over 15 years at the concessionaire, if you are even included in the waiting list.
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What to consider when buying a Daytona.
The Daytona does have an excellent chronograph, which is not prone to breaking. However, if mishandled or not properly maintained, this can still happen. complication. This also means that when purchasing a used watch, in addition to the normal mechanical movement, one must pay close attention to ensuring the chronograph functions correctly.
The Daytona does have an excellent chronograph, which is not prone to breaking. However, if mishandled or not properly maintained, this can still happen.
Furthermore, the Daytona unfortunately falls victim to many counterfeits. As the wristwatch is so popular, the demand for cheap fakes is also very high. Many people desire the status and recognizability of a Daytona, but they're not willing to spend tens of thousands on it.
Therefore, it's best to buy your Daytona only from second-hand dealers such as Watchfinder, who guarantee authenticity. Alternatively, ensure that the original box and papers are included.
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The most promising Daytona
Daytonas are now only available with ceramic bezels. This was not always the case. In the past, the bezels were also made of metal. The Daytona with the reference number 116520 was the last Daytona without a ceramic bezel. Accordingly, it has also evolved in price.
While the version with the black dial was still being traded for under 10,000 euros ten years ago, it now costs over 23,000 euros on the gray market. At its peak in May 2022, it was even worth over 30,000 euros.
Right now, it is particularly advisable to buy this Daytona, as prices have stagnated on one hand, and the watch is becoming increasingly rare on the other. No new Daytona with a stainless steel bezel is in sight.
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These Rolex models are also promising
When speculating on the value development of luxury watches, one must not forget to differentiate between short-term and long-term gains.
Short-term gains can usually be made during hypes. For example, when a Rolex with a certain dial suddenly becomes the talk of the town. Typically, one buys a watch at a low price, which then shoots up quickly, but also deflates rapidly. The Rolex Oyster Perpetual models would be a good example of this.
Long-term investments, however, are safer and more sensible. With these, one speculates that a watch will perform well on the secondary market in the coming years and thus slowly gain in value.
It is not uncommon to enter here at an already high price and play poker for a continuous gain in value.
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Stainless steel sport models
The Rolex sports models made of stainless steel, and by this we mean the GMT-Master II and Submariner models with colorful bezels, are also very popular. These two legendary models belong to the history of Rolex. Because the colorful, rotatable bezels shape the brand identity and are simultaneously associated with the golden crown.
For the Submariner, the Hulk and the Kermit are particularly promising when it comes to value development. Because the Hulk was discontinued in September 2020.
Currently, the green Submariner changes hands for about 20,000 euros. But at its peak, the timepiece has already narrowly missed the 30,000 euro mark. The luxury watch markets are recovering right now. Perhaps now is the right time to buy a Hulk, in order to be able to rake in massive profits with it in the future.
The Kermit, on the other hand, has suffered a very small drop in value. Because after the luxury watch prices generally dropped again after May 2022, the Submariner Kermit was able to hold at a price of circa. 16,000 Euros. At its peak, it only traded around 3000 euros more expensive.
However, the GMT-Master II models are also in great demand and therefore very interesting from an investment point of view.
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Both the Batmanand the Pepsiare iconic watches that claim their place in Rolex history. The Pepsi was the first Rolex watch to allow two time zones to be displayed at once. And the Batman was the first GMT-Master with a two-tone ceramic bezel.
The two color combinations are as legendary as they are timeless and will likely never go out of style. Accordingly, these GMT models continue to offer themselves as long-term investments.
Especially because the secondary market prices for luxury watches have dropped, now could be the right time to get hold of a colored GMT.
Insider tip - Milgauss
If you want to buy a new Rolex from a concessionaire, you will initially be caught off guard by the long waiting times.
In relation to the 10 years upwards waiting time for the popular models, the Milgauss seems relatively accessible and available with its two to three years waiting period. Moreover, the Milgauss has a classic, appealing design. It's no wonder that it's becoming increasingly popular.
Because if the Rolex models that have been popular so far are so hard to come by, one tends to shift towards the equally chic, less sought-after models.
It is clear that the Milgauss is becoming increasingly popular. The version with a blue-green dial has already seen its price rise by over 1,000 euros since February. In February, the watch was still being traded for around 11,200. Two to three months later, it was selling for over 12,600 euros.
If this trend continues, all those who didn't think of the Milgauss sooner will be annoyed.
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The Oyster Perpetual models
A really unusual candidate in the series might be the Oyster Perpetual. It is actually the Rolex with the lowest list price, so to speak, the entry-level model.
However, the colorful dials were so well received that the Oyster Perpetual models were sometimes traded for well over 30,000 euros. Mind you, this is the cheapest Rolex model, without any special complication or the like.
This is what we meant when we talked about being able to rake in short-term profits. The hype around the colorful Oyster Perpetual models was foreseeable. However, whether it will be the same with the New Oyster Perpetual from 2023 is difficult to answer.
First and foremost was the light blue dial, which is reminiscent of the Tiffany light blue. Therefore, this version is also called the Tiffany Oyster Perpetual. When this color is used by the movement, a huge hype is actually always pre-programmed.
How the colorful Oyster models will develop in the future is difficult to predict. That depends entirely on how the colorful dials will be received in the future. It is also conceivable that fashion will move back towards plain dials. Nevertheless, the Oyster Perpetual is an interesting model to keep an eye on.
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Vintage models and special editions
The main factor influencing the value of a watch is how rare it is. And what could be rarer than limited special editions of Rolex or vintage models with a special history that became extremely rare over decades.
For this type of watches, let's quickly give two examples.
Rolex occasionally brings limited special editions to the market. These are practically predestined to achieve a very good increase in value.
The Sea-Dweller Deepsea D-Blue, a watch that is water resistant to over 3000 meters, was launched in honor of James Camron, who explored the Mariana Trench. The D-Blue is characterized by its special dial that has a blue-black gradient. Actually, you would think that it is already priceless, but it is not.
After all, the Deepsea D-Blue can be had for around 16,000 euros, while at its peak it traded for around 20,000 euros. However, given the amazing story behind the watch, it is not unlikely that it will become a rare collector's item one day.
For example, a rare vintage Rolex would be the Paul Newman Daytona. Of course, we don't mean the original Paul Newman Daytona, as that is priceless. We mean the Daytonas with the same or similar reference as Paul Newman's. This is because the similar models have also benefited massively from the hype surrounding the Paul Newman Daytona. These watches are traded for several hundred thousand depending on condition and reference.
Generally, it can be said that if there is a story or a personality behind a watch, it is not unlikely that it will become valuable at some point.
We have now talked a lot about Rolex, logically, that's what the article is about. Of course, you can not only invest in Rolex watches, in general, "luxury watches as an investment" is a topic that interests many. Be sure to check out this separate article as well.
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Conclusion
Ultimately, the performance of Rolex watches always depends on many different factors. How popular is the model? Is there still original box and papers? Has Rolex discontinued the model? And these are just a few questions to ask yourself when looking to purchase a Rolex watch as an investment. What else you need to know about buying luxury watches you can find in our section "Buy your first luxury watch".
Generally, in the long run, the Daytona and the stainless steel sports models are the most promising in terms of value increase.
However, one must never forget that this is still speculation. In the rarest of cases, one can know for sure whether a watch will really increase in value. Certainly there are indications that speak for themselves. But these are only indications and no sure guarantee.
As in all other areas where you can invest your money, caution is advised when investing in Rolex watches. One will not find the fast wealth here. Rather, you get an excellent opportunity to protect your money from inflation and still feel pleasure from an excellent luxury watch.
Scource cover image: Rolex
About the author
Alexander Weinberger
For me, the most fascinating thing about watches is the interplay between precise craftsmanship and artistic development. In a watch movement, hundreds of small parts have to be put together precisely so that they form a large whole.
