Value performance of Grand Seiko watches
Luxurywatches as an investment..
If you plan to sell your watch for a profit, you need to be well informed about which watches are suitable for this purpose. But even if you do not plan to sell your watch in a few years, you should pay attention to the value stability.
Especially when deciding between a Grand Seiko or a "regular" Seiko, value stability can be a decisive factor.
What about the performance of Grand Seiko's watches?
Limited models from Grand Seiko can certainly show a positive performance. However, a negative performance is to be expected for the common models, yet they are relatively stable in value. On the second-hand market, they are traded about 25% below the list price. As long as Grand Seiko watches are in good condition, they hold this price quite well. In the Comparison to Rolex Grand Seiko performs worse.
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However, this depends on a large number of factors, so let's look at Grand Seiko's performance and value stability on the basis of the five most important factors.
We've written a separate value stability blog about how you can estimate a watch's appreciation potential yourself, with a spreadsheet.
What is Grand Seiko - an overview
Grand Seiko can be considered the luxury brand of Seiko. Grand Seiko was founded in 1960 and was intended to compete with luxury watches from Switzerland. Since 2018, they have been independent and, apart from the name, have nothing more to do with Seiko.
According to Japanese tradition, the watches are simple and elegant design.
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Grand Seiko is often referred to as the entry into the luxury world, as they are sometimes available for under €4,000.
Since they have completely separated from Seiko, Grand Seiko ventures with their watches more and more. Thus, in addition to the "Normal" watches of Grand Seiko, the "Masterpiece Collection" is created, which can be compared only in fewer points with the conventional Grand Seiko watches. Set with precious stones, they cost up to 200,000 €, which makes them a very exclusive collection that is particularly exciting in terms of value performance.
Qualitatively, the Grand Seiko watches are certainly all excellent. Both the finish of the watches is very precise, as well as their movements. The famous Movements. Das berühmte Springdrive is one of Grand Seiko's best movements and convinces with an accuracy of less than one second per day. (Mechanical)
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5 Factors for the performance of watches
Even watches in the luxury segment are subject to the principles of the market economy.
That is, the price is determined by supply and demand.
In the case of luxury watches, at least the supply is often well predictable. Especially the limitation of models limits the supply, whereby one may hope for a price increase. In addition to the supply of newly available watches, the supply on the "gray" market (the pre-owned market) has recently been the primary means of estimating a potential increase in value. When you see watches labeled "New" and trading above list price, it is an almost certain indication that if you buy at list price, you will see an increase in value.
But the demand side is much more difficult to predict. Because the question is always whether the watches are also bought above the list price, or whether they are only offered above it.
Aspects such as the image of the brand and the availability of the watches serve as a guide.
Since demand is not regulated, or rather curbed, by watch retailers in the same way as supply, it is difficult to estimate it correctly.
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Nevertheless, I found some factors to estimate the potential of a watch.
- Is the watch limited?
- What about the availability of the watch?
- How does the competition fare in this price range?
- How have the watches performed historically?
- What about the supply on the used market?
These factors can help you evaluate the potential of a watch.
Unexpected events leading to a price change cannot be ruled out, of course.
Performance of Grand Seiko watches under 20'000 €
In the following, I will only assess the "normal" watches from Grand Seiko, which are under 20'000 €.
Let's analyze the Grand Seiko models and the brand itself based on the 5 factors.
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1. is the watch limited?
Among the cheaper models, there are some that are limited, in addition to the non-limited models. Grand Seiko launches a limited dial or otherwise a special edition of a model every now and then. They are usually limited to 500-2,000 pieces.
I see potential especially in the models that are limited to 500 units. In my opinion, the brand lacks the prestige to allow a model that is limited to 2,000 units to increase in value.
Relying on the watch being limited can be very risky, because you won't know if the watch is really trading above list on the secondary market until the watch is sold out. This is especially so with Grand Seiko because the watches are relatively easily available. Unlike Rolex, for example, you simply have to be fast enough to grab a piece, which is why no one buys a watch above list price while it is still available from Grand Seiko.
However, as we will see later, this assessment is not necessarily correct.
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2. what about the availability of Grand Seiko watches?
Until 2010, Grand Seiko watches were available exclusively in Asia.
This was something good for the performance because it reduced the availability of watches, which may have had a positive impact on the price.
Back then it was still special to own a Grand Seiko. Today, Grand Seiko watches are available in 20 different countries, and in Germany there are no less than 4 dealers who sell them.
As we mentioned earlier, you won't find a waiting list or anything similar for Grand Seiko. In general, anyone can walk into a Grand Seiko boutique and purchase the available models. However, you might not find limited edition models in every store; in this case, you would simply need to pre-order them.
The only exception is for watches that are only available in specific regions. In this case, you may have trouble buying a brand-new watch. To do so, you would either need to travel to the required country or look on the pre-owned market. Be aware, though, that this may decrease the likelihood of making a profit with that watch.
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3. how does the competition perform in this price range?
Grand Seiko has several competitors, starting with the classic ones like Rolex, Omega and Breitling, brands like Tag Heurer and Tudor are also part of the competition. Since the watches of Grand Seiko are in a relatively large price range from about 3,000 to 15,000 and more, depending on the price segment, another competitor should be analyzed for comparison.
If we look at watches Rolex and Co, you will certainly find some model with an increase in value. However, the watches of Rolex and Co are rather in the lower price segment for the brand and yet almost exclusively to be compared with the comparatively more expensive watches for Grand Seiko. Overall, the price range of Grand Seiko watches is quite a bit lower than that of Rolex, which makes a direct comparison to Rolex difficult. Of course, apart from the Masterpiece collection, which can certainly be compared with Rolex.
Since Grand Seiko has positioned itself in an intermediate field price-wise, we can't compare any direct competition. We should look at a mix of the more expensive brands for luxury watches like Rolex, Breitling, Omega and the comparatively cheaper luxury watches from Tag Heurer and Tudor.
With the somewhat cheaper brands, it already looks a lot worse with the value development. It is hardly possible to find a watch with a significant price increase.
If we look at the potential to increase the value of Grand Seiko watches exclusively from this point of view, we can hardly assume that they will increase in value.
In conclusion, we think that a positive price trend will probably occur almost exclusively for the more expensive watches that cost more than 10,000 euros. The secondary market's willingness to pay is likely to be lower for the less expensive models.
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4. how good is Grand Seiko's historical performance?
To check historical performance, it's best to use a tool I found. it will tell you historical prices and the current price being paid on the secondary market.
Here you can find the link to WatchCharts.com.
Of course, I also evaluated the data from it so you don't have to slog through all the graphs.
If we look at Grand Seiko, we see that while the market price is rarely above the retail price, it still holds up pretty well. According to my calculations, the watches are on average between 20 and 25% below the retail price.
Nevertheless, I found some models that have a positive price trend.
Among them, for example, the SLGA007, a model from the Evolution 9 collection, which is limited to 2,000 pieces and is currently trading at almost €1,000 above its original price.
Another example is the SBGP017 from the Heritage collection, also limited to 2,000 pieces and currently trading about €500 above retail price.
A positive price development is therefore possible! Compared to the watches of Rolex, where a price development is present in almost every case, but Grand Seiko are a vanishingly small number of watches that increase your value.
As we have already mentioned, the watches maintain a relatively constant value of about 20% below the list price. This is not particularly good, but if you are, for example, faced with the decision of whether to buy a Seiko or a Grand Seiko, this could indeed be a decisive factor in favor of a Grand Seiko!
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5. what about the supply on the second-hand market?
I would look at the used market for 2 reasons.
On the one hand, with a bit of luck you will find out that your desired watch, which you could buy in the store, is already offered above the retail price. However, you have to keep in mind that as long as the watch is still available at Grand Seiko itself, it is hardly worth the higher price and therefore this is rather speculation or a result of difficult availability.
On the other hand, the used market can be especially interesting for Grand Seiko models, as even non-limited models hold up very well after a 20-25% price reduction. So if you want a certain watch, by buying a used watch you can shift the loss of value to someone else. Thus, you get a watch that is at least stable in value for your wallet.
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Conclusion
The watch industry is highly competitive. Especially for watch manufacturers who still have little prestige, it is difficult to bring a model to the market that has a positive performance.
Grand Seiko certainly has models that are increasing in value. But you will hardly see big gains on the models below 20'000 €. Nevertheless, you can at least expect to lose only 20-25% of the purchase price. For the more expensive models (20,000 and up), I see greater potential for appreciation in the future.
In order to evaluate a watch, the weighting of the various factors plays an important role. Basically, I think that with Grand Seiko, especially the number 1 factor, whether the watch is limited, is the most important.
Finally, I would like to mention that the value development is absolutely irrelevant in many cases. Because if you buy a watch because you find it beautiful and want to wear it every day, you do not plan to sell the watch anyway. In this case, its value is also absolutely irrelevant!
What do you think about the performance of Grand Seiko watches?
Let me know with a comment!
*All information is without guarantee
Source cover image: shutterstock, contribution is renewed continuously
About the author
Maio Rosatzin
My passion began with a Breitling Premier B01. Since then, I've been sharing my fascination for watchmaking here on my blog. Let's dive into this fascinating world together!
