How to determine the value stability of a watch? (with a calculation table in the article)
Your first luxury watch and every other watch you will afford have one thing in common.
They will probably all cost quite a bit.
It would be even nicer if you could get back about the same or even more than you paid for the watch as soon as you sell it.
Welcome to the wonderfully confusing, risky but also lucrative world of appreciation, in the realm of luxury watches.
And it all starts with the question: how can you determine the value stability of a watch?
Countless factors play a role in determining the value stability of a watch. If you compare the historical price development of the watch with comparable objects and add the popular unique selling points in the areas of brand, model and movement, you can get an approximate picture of how the watch will develop in terms of price.
In this article I will introduce you to the factors that play a role in the calculation of a performance. In addition, at the end of the article I will give you a simple system with which you can estimate the performance of any watch yourself.
Brand
The brand of your watch does play an important role, because it is the brand that is used to make the first judgment about any watch. For example, if a new watch from Rolex comes on the market and one from Zenith, one can claim, based solely on the brand, that the Rolex will perform better than the one from Zenith. This is because Rolex has a reputation for producing watches that are very stable in value.
What we focus on with the brand is size. Unfortunately, you can't just say the bigger the better. Because one-man manufactories that sell maybe five handmade watches a year can also show a gigantic performance.
What we have to watch out for is to be wary of medium-sized, young companies.
A brand that is known per se for value stability is a great advantage for our purpose. I have used the example of Rolex before. A GMT Master is long and widely known as a stable value watch. When Rolex released the GMT Master II 2022, it was clear to many that this watch would probably be similarly stable as its predecessor and it was often bought as a value investment.
Another point that makes a brand stable in value is if it is a traditional movement. So watch brands that can look back on a long history. There are thousands of reasons why this can be. Be it because a watch brand must first establish itself before it is really recognized or the experience that such an old house brings with it.
Is your watchknowledge up to date?
Here is our list of must-know watches!
Bet you'll find a watch on it that you've never seen before.
Model
Of course, the model, individually practically plays the biggest role.
Here too, exceptions prove the rule.
However, there are some guidelines that you can follow.
Rarity. Of course, the watch market, like practically every other market, is determined by supply and demand. The rarer a model is, or the smaller the supply, the more competitive the demand. As a result, prices can shoot up under certain circumstances.
How rare and competitive a model is can be seen by the waiting list, among other things. In order to be able to buy a sought-after watch such as a Royal Oak from Audemars Piguet, you have to accept that you may spend several decades on the waiting list. If you make it onto one of these lists at all. For the Nautilus from Patek Philippe, one is currently not included on any list at all.
The length of such waiting lists are a good indicator that demand for the model is guaranteed and that the price will evolve to your liking.
Unique selling points are another factor that can ensure that the watch will increase in value. To some extent, it does not matter what this feature is. Be it a production defect whose production had to be stopped or a prominent previous owner.
The Rolex Daytona that actor Paul Newman wore could be bought for $200 in the 1930s. The watch itself was sold in 2017 for 17.8Million dollars. Models of the same type now go over the counter for over $700,000. All because Paul Newman wore it every day, creating a hype.
Is your watchknowledge up to date?
Here is our list of must-know watches!
Bet you'll find a watch on it that you've never seen before.
Set
This point has no great influence on the increase or stability of the value. However, it is very important if you want to resell the watch.
Selling a watch in fullset plays an important role on the price you get. Without the fullset you can lose up to 20% of its value.
This fullset consists of the watch, the box and all papers.
Make sure that you can prove the services here as well. Keep the service invoices together with the papers in a safe place. If you can prove that the watch is in good condition and that all services were done on time, people will be willing to pay more, even for a relatively old watch.
Also, the box and papers must match the watch. Sounds logical, but just to be on the safe side, check that the reference number on the watch, the box and the papers are the same.
Movement
Now we get very technical. Some factors of a movement can make it more stable in value than its competitors.
A mechanical movement is more stable in value than a quartz movement. Even in this case, exceptions prove the rule, such as the Patek Philippe Nautilus (Ref7011/1G) with a quartz movement, whose value has actually increased.
Automatic increases popularity. A watch that can recharge itself with the help of a flywheel is highly sought after by collectors.
A manufacture movement beats movements from wholesalers.
If you build a luxury watch, sooner or later you will be faced with the question of what kind of movement to install. Do you take the trouble to build a mechanical movement yourself or do you buy a movement from a wholesaler like ETA, Sellita or Miyota.
Does the watch have a unique selling point in the movement. Is it particularly thin, complex, or unique in some other way. These features make the watch stand out from the crowd and collectors are willing to pay a lot for it.
Using the reference number of the watch you want to test, you can find out all this information you need.
Is your watchknowledge up to date?
Here is our list of must-know watches!
Bet you'll find a watch on it that you've never seen before.
Historical development
Fans of statistics beware, the next chapter will be very factual and theoretical, but it is well worth sticking with it. This is the only information on your way to determine the performance of a watch that is based on facts and not collectors' sentiment.
When you have finished reading this post visit Watchcharts.com
The site shows you sales statistics in the primary and secondary markets of virtually all watches. You can look at price trends, both by brand and by model.
If you want to buy a watch that will keep or even increase its value, do your research and this site will definitely help you.
Conclusion
The fact is, very few watches increase in value and you can rarely be sure which watch will be a good investment in the future. Nevertheless, I think you can define the value stability, or the value increase potential of a watch to a point based on the factors mentioned.
I know I promised you something else, and of course I intend to keep my promise. This guide should help you to define the value stability of a watch. You just have to work through the points and evaluate them for yourself. The column on the right is the maximum score you can give your watch. Then you add up the points and get a percentage of how great the potential of value stability is for your watch.
Source cover image: Pexels | edited post
Is your watchknowledge up to date?
Here is our list of must-know watches!
Bet you'll find a watch on it that you've never seen before.
Tabelle
| Brand | ||
| Size | 6 | |
| Known for stability of value | 6 | |
| Traditional factory | 4 | |
| Model | ||
| Rarity | 4 | |
| Waitinglist | 4 | |
| No longer in production | 6 | |
| Unique selling point | 6 | |
| Limited Edition | 6 | |
| Set | ||
| Fullset | 6 | |
| Box | 2 | |
| Papers | 2 | |
| Services | 2 | |
| Matching the watch | 6 | |
| Movement | ||
| mechanical | 2 | |
| automatic | 4 | |
| Manufacture movement | 4 | |
| Unique selling point | 6 | |
| Historical development | ||
| Your model | 6 | |
| Comparable models | 6 | |
| Models with the same movement | 6 | |
| of the brand | 6 | |
| Total | 100 |
About the author
Benno Büchler
In pursuit of more charmingly atypical watches, the teenage interest developed into a real passion. I strive to find the perfect combination of deviant and ravishing for the wrist.
